2022 World Cup expert picks, odds for Spain-Japan, Germany-Costa Rica deciding matches in Group E

Germany has won four World Cups, most recently lifting the trophy in 2014, but enters the final day of matches in Group E last place in the group. The Germans must beat Costa Rica, but are expected to do so. Elsewhere in Thursday’s Group E matches, Japan looks to pull off another upset, this time against group-leading Spain, to advance.

Japan vs. Spain

Japan (1-0-1, 3 points), Spain (1-1-0, 4 points)

Kickoff time: 2 p.m. ET/7 p.m. GMT

Venue: Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan

Spain got tested by Germany and gave up a late lead, but enters the final group match at the top of the group. Spain wins the group with a win or with a draw as long as Costa Rica doesn’t beat Germany.

Japan will be trying to pull off its second massive upset of the tournament. After falling to Costa Rica, Japan needs a result in this match. A win gets Japan in. Japan is also in with a draw if Costa Rica and Germany play to a draw.

There’s even a chance Spain could be eliminated, but that would require Japan and Costa Rica both winning or Germany winning and making up eight goals in goal differential.

Can Japan replicate its performance against Germany by holding on defensively and being efficient on the counter? Spain’s ball dominance is different than Germany’s attacking style, but it still may lead to chances on the counter.

Expert picks

Costa Rica vs. Germany

Costa Rica (1-0-1, 3 points), Germany (0-1-1, 1 point)

Kickoff time: 2 p.m. ET/7 p.m. GMT

Venue: Al Bayt Stadium, Al Khor

Germany drew Spain on Sunday and overall it was a very good day for the Germans’ chances of advancing. Costa Rica’s win against Japan busted the door wide open for the second spot in Group E.

Germany can’t win the group and must win to advance, but is a massive favorite against Costa Rica, even after the Ticos’ win. A Germany win would put the Germans in the knockout round if Spain beats Japan. Even if Spain and Japan draw, Germany would have a good chance of going through ahead of Japan on goal differential. Germany is -500 to advance.

Costa Rica has more opportunities to go through, but enters as a massive underdog. The win against Japan eased the pain of the embarrassing effort against Spain, but that -6 goal differential could still be a detriment. The Ticos advance with a win and a draw would be enough if Spain wins.

We know what this match will look like. Germany is going to bombard Costa Rica and the Ticos are going to try to bunker in and defend deep. With goal differential potentially coming into play, Germany likely won’t let up if it goes up early. However, Germany already lost to one opponent defending deep and Costa Rica already picked up a win playing that way.

Costa Rica defender Francisco Calvo will be suspended for this match after picking up yellow cards in each of the first two group matches.