2024 NFL Draft Watch: Which Group of 5 prospect can make a statement?

This Saturday’s college football slate is missing a marquee matchup like Texas–Alabama provided last week. In fact, there isn’t a single game between ranked opponents on this weekend’s schedule, which is a bummer for both fans and NFL evaluators.

However, a “light” early season weekend is a great opportunity for area scouts to check out Group of 5 senior prospects as they face Power 5 opponents. Putting a strong performance on tape against the best competition on the schedule can alter a player’s draft grade.

Names to watch this weekend:

Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State (at Colorado, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN)

All of the attention will be on Coach Prime, Shedeur Sanders and Colorado. But if you aren’t familiar with Horton, this will be the perfect opportunity to change that. At 6-foot-2 and 187 pounds, with verified 4.4 speed, the Nevada transfer has the long-striding acceleration to stack corners and win downfield. He is leaner than ideal and needs to continue getting stronger, but there is a lot to like about his tracking and adjustment skills.

Horton versus Colorado wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter on the outside will be a must-see matchup Saturday. For NFL teams looking for a Z receiver with punt-return value, Horton will be near the top of the list.

Austin Reed, QB and Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky (at Ohio State, 4 p.m., FOX)

One of the best quarterback-receiver duos in the country. Both Reed and Corley have a chance to push their draft stock into the top-100 conversation between now and April, and a productive day against the Buckeyes sure would help.

After leading West Florida to a Division II championship, Reed transferred to Western Kentucky before the 2022 season. He admirably filled the shoes of fourth-round draft pick Bailey Zappe (Patriots) and led the FBS in passing yards last year. Although he doesn’t have elite size or arm strength, Reed navigates the rush well and puts the ball in position for his receivers to make plays. You will hear the term “moxie” thrown around during the draft process to describe Reed’s competitiveness.

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Corley, meanwhile, is in the mix to be the first senior wide receiver drafted in April. The 5-11, 211-pound prospect has the build of a running back, with the contact balance and speed to create when the ball is in his hands. Last season, Corley led the FBS (by a wide margin) with 975 yards after the catch — no other receiver had more than 700. He is a certain type of player and won’t be able to fill every role in an NFL offense, but Corley is an exceptionally fun player to watch.

Kurtis Rourke, QB, Ohio (vs. Iowa State, noon, ESPNU)

Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell isn’t taking Ohio lightly. He called Rourke, who tore his ACL last November, the “toughest quarterback” the Cyclones have seen this season. Given Rourke’s prototypical size (6-4, 230), strong arm and functional mobility, it is no mystery why several scouts stamped him with draftable grades over the summer.

The next step for him as a prospect is to improve the consistency of his mechanics and ball placement. He’ll need to be especially sharp in those areas against Iowa State’s defense, which is led by senior cornerback T.J. Tampa, a potential top-100 pick in the 2024 class.

THE MAPLE MISSILE!🍁
Kurtis Rourke makes throwing dimes look like light work.
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) November 9, 2022

Mark Redman, TE, San Diego State (at Oregon State, 3:30 p.m., FS1)

A former four-star recruit at Washington, Redman made the move to San Diego State, put his name on the NFL radar last season and is on pace for a career year as a senior (12 catches for 102 yards, two TDs so far).

At 6-6, 255, Redman is a good-sized target and moves well as a route runner. Drops are rare on his tape, but he needs to do a better job boxing out and securing grabs against tight coverage. Right now, Redman isn’t considered a guaranteed draft pick, although a standout performance in this matchup could help sway the doubters.

Gavin Hardison, QB, UTEP (at Arizona, 11 p.m., Pac 12 Network)

Hardison is the type of quarterback who makes a handful of beleaguered decisions each game, some leading to turnovers (four-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio this season). But then he rips off a few NFL-level throws, and evaluators turn into Al Pacino from “The Godfather Part III” and are pulled right back in.

Hardison needs to be more efficient with his progression reads, but when he stays on time, he shows off arm talent that belongs in the NFL. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he secures a backup role at the next level.

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Easton Gibbs, LB, Wyoming (at Texas, 8 p.m., Longhorn Network)

Since 2020, two Wyoming linebackers have been drafted in the top 70 (Chad Muma, Logan Wilson), and Gibbs is hoping to be next. The California native has combined for 211 total tackles over the last two seasons. He’s the quarterback of the Wyoming defense and an instinctive, controlled tackler. However, his range and ability to sift through the trash will be tested by the Longhorns offense.

I don’t think Gibbs will be drafted in the same range as Muma or Wilson, but a strong performance against Texas will help his chances of landing in the middle rounds.

Spencer Rattler has completed 83.3 percent of his passes (55-of-66) through two games this season. (Matt Pendleton / USA Today)

Three more must-see NFL prospects this weekend

1. Christian Mahogany, RG, Boston College (vs. Florida State, noon, ABC)
Zion Johnson wasn’t the only Boston College lineman to draw the attention of scouts during the 2021 season. Mahogany looked like a future top-100 draft pick himself that year, but he suffered a torn ACL during the offseason and spent the 2022 season rehabbing his knee. He has shown some rust in his return this season, so Saturday’s matchup against defensive tackle Fabien Lovett and the Seminoles will be his biggest test yet.

2. Decamerion Richardson, CB, Mississippi State (vs. LSU, noon, ESPN)
Over the last four years, Mississippi State has produced three cornerbacks drafted in the top 100, and Richardson is looking to continue that pipeline. He doesn’t have the ball skills or gaudy production of Emmanuel Forbes, but Richardson (6-2, 195) passes the eye test and offers the cover athleticism and speed to match up with LSU’s talented pass catchers like Malik Nabers and Kyren Lacy.

3. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina (at Georgia, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Rattler is more well-liked by NFL scouts than most fans think. The lack of help from his supporting cast in the opener against North Carolina was staggering, including a handful of drops by his receivers and a disjointed offensive line that led to eight sacks.

It won’t get much easier against the Georgia defense in Athens, but scouts will be interested to see how Rattler responds. Can he do more to lift the talent around him? Will he crumble if the rest of the offense starts to deteriorate? The context of the situation matters and won’t be explained by a box score.

Stat of the Week

Quarterback Sam Hartman has received most of the praise for Notre Dame’s 3-0 start, as he’s leading an offense that is averaging almost 500 yards per game. But junior running back Audric Estime (6-0, 227) also deserves credit. He is one of only three FBS running backs with four rushing touchdowns and a per-game average of at least 115.0 rushing yards.

Built like a tank, Estime looks like a runaway train once he gets into the open field (see his 80-yard touchdown run versus NC State below), and he shows better speed than expected for a back with his power profile. According to PFF, Estime leads the FBS with 22 forced missed tackles.

Prospect trending up …

Tabbed as a potential early-rounder after his freshman season, Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (6-4, 224) disappointed last year as the Hurricanes offense sputtered. Through two games in 2023, however, he has revived his draft stock under the direction of new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson. Van Dyke is showing better command of the offense and overall poise in the pocket, the latter of which is a byproduct of a revamped offensive line.

Against Texas A&M, he had an adjusted completion percentage of 88.9 percent with five passing touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Featuring a talented defense and an offense that’s currently averaging 43.0 points per game, Miami should be a much more interesting team to watch in upcoming matchups with ACC foes like North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State.

Prospect trending down …

One of the most anticipated transfers this offseason was senior edge Jordan Burch (6-6, 275), who took his pass-rush talents from South Carolina to Oregon and greener ~~pastures~~ jerseys. However, his impact hasn’t lived up to the hype just yet — he’s recorded two tackles in two games. After generating 40 pressures last season for the Gamecocks, Burch has yet to register a pressure on 28 pass-rushing opportunities this season.

There isn’t enough of a sample size this season to say he is “falling” as a pro prospect, but Burch’s lack of impact on the Texas Tech tape was a missed opportunity.

Rookie revisited

Several rookies showed out in Week 1 of the NFL schedule, but maybe the most surprising was Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, who finished with 14 targets, 10 catches and 119 receiving yards. Based on his tape from BYU, Nacua had a third-round grade, but his ultimate projection landed more in the mid-Day 3 range because of questions about durability. Nacua fell to the fifth round (No. 177), which was expected. If he stays healthy, though, he will certainly outplay that draft spot in the Rams offense.

Here is the summary from his scouting report in the 2023 NFL Draft Guide:

A two-year starter at BYU, Nacua was an inside and outside receiver in offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick’s balanced scheme. A record-setting athlete in high school, he spent two seasons at Washington before transferring to Provo, where he led the Cougars in receiving as a junior and senior despite battling multiple injuries. With his body control and focus, Nacua can win one-on-one situations on the outside or provide an underneath target as a zone-beater. Though there aren’t questions about his ball skills, he might lack the pure speed that teams covet outside the numbers and the suddenness desired in the slot. Overall, Nacua needs to prove he can stay healthy and on the field at the next level, but he is smart, tough and athletic with the locked-in concentration that gives him a fighting chance to earn an NFL roster spot.

Quotable

“Ran all the tests and all the evaluations, and he’s in good shape. He’s going to be really good. He doesn’t have anything that’s too serious. He just has some football stuff. We’re going to be in great shape.” — Miami coach Mario Cristobal giving an update this week on junior safety Kamren Kinchens, who had to be carted off the field late in the Texas A&M game. The All-American fell to the ground after a violent collision on a tackle attempt and spent the night undergoing tests in the hospital. It is unknown when Kinchens — my top-ranked safety prospect over the summer — will return to the field, but the news Cristobal shared was certainly positive.

(Top photo of Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke: Tony Ding / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)