Bills roundtable: Patriots week, Josh Allen’s shoulder, Von Miller’s next sack

It’s Patriots week.

That used to mean more when Tom Brady roamed the sidelines. Now, the Buffalo Bills welcome a downtrodden New England team closer to a hard reset than its glory days.

Not that all is well on One Bills Drive. The London loss to the Jaguars two weeks ago still stings and surviving the last-place New York Giants last week didn’t do enough to inspire confidence in a Bills team with high expectations.

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Is this the week Buffalo truly gets back on track? The Athletic’s Bills writers Tim Graham and Joe Buscaglia discuss that and more in our latest roundtable.

On Sunday, the Bills have a chance to beat the Patriots for a fifth consecutive time (they haven’t done that since 1992-1994). Are Bills fans still excited about beating the Patriots or has some of the hate dissipated?

Graham: Some of the fun disappeared when Brady departed for Tampa Bay in 2020, but, as long as Bill Belichick wears the headset, Buffalo fans take great glee in knocking New England around. Especially with Belichick perhaps on the ropes with owner Robert Kraft, a Bills victory – regardless of how bad the Patriots are – will plaster smiles on faces across Western New York. That said, the Patriots have slipped toward irrelevance and might be the third most interesting AFC East rivalry for the Bills this season. The Dolphins are in first place despite losing to the Bills, and the Jets seem to put a spell on Josh Allen whenever they play.

Buscaglia: I think the fan base will get enjoyment out of beating the Patriots every time it happens for as long as Belichick remains their head coach. They were such a dominant force, and embarrassed the Bills on several occasions over the span of over a decade. That sour taste, even if it dissipates slightly with each loss, will never truly be gone until all remnants of those Patriots super teams are done and dusted.

Last week against the Giants was supposed to be the get-right game for the Bills offense. Now it’s supposed to be this week against the Pats. What do we particularly need to see from the Bills offense on Sunday to feel confident again?

Graham: Buffalo’s offense needs to stop doing its impersonation of Navin Johnson trying to dance on the front porch. If the reference is too old for you, then please look it up. The Bills have no rhythm, a fact coach Sean McDermott (he at least knows how to clap properly, unlike Navin) and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey bemoaned Monday. They are desperate for chemistry and consistency and connectivity with playmakers not named Stefon Diggs. Second receiver Gabriel Davis has been fine, but everybody else has been a disappointing contributor. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have been invisible.

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Buscaglia: After McDermott’s not-so-subtle comments postgame about getting “in rhythm” and “establishing the line,” I’d guess we see the Bills come out and look to run the ball against the Patriots with James Cook. Not to an overwhelming degree, but enough to satisfy the coach, get the Patriots to creep up toward the line of scrimmage a bit more and look to beat them with play action, which can help open up targets for the Davis, Kincaid and Knox crowd. After playing heavy man coverage against the Bills in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the Patriots dialed that back last year to be a majority zone team. The Bills can exploit the Patriots if they do get them into man coverage, and having an early successful run game will help that. It may not be an offensive explosion, but the Bills should be able to move the ball pretty consistently this week. They know they need to get some good drives together, and finish them, and this is a group that usually responds well to that type of criticism.

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Considering the DaQuan Jones and Matt Milano injuries, do you have more confidence or less confidence in the defense’s ability after the Giants game last week?

Graham: Slightly more confidence. While the Bills’ defense stood tall in clutch situations, denying the Giants any points on two visits to the 1-yard line, I need to see them do more against better opposition. Saquon Barkley is a fabulous tailback, but the Giants had a backup quarterback playing behind a slapdash offensive line. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver has posted career highs in snaps the past two weeks, which isn’t necessarily ideal, but Buffalo’s deep D-line should be able absorb losing Jones better than the other position groups will have coping with their losses. Rookie linebacker Dorian Williams played well in his first start, but can the third-round pick be relied upon week in, week out? Kaiir Elam, forced to play since cornerback Tre’Davious White’s torn Achilles tendon, has been a liability.

Buscaglia: As well as they played, I don’t believe it to be a true gauge of the state of the defense at this point. The Giants offensive line, at its current state, is the worst in the league, and they still ripped off huge gains right up the middle of their defense in the second half. The film showed some warning signs for their run defense, but if Dorian Williams can take a step forward it will go a long way. The Patriots will test them repeatedly, especially with a struggling passing offense and Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott showing signs of life last week. Plus, the Bills may not have Oliver this weekend, which would make matters even worse. The defensive ends continue to be the Bills’ best asset, and potentially getting cornerback Dane Jackson this week will be a nice boost.

It feels like Von Miller won’t be officially back until he gets a sack. Is this the week he gets one on the board?

Graham: Miller is among the most decorated edge rushers of all-time, but I’m sure he’s about as eager as he’s ever been to get on the stat sheet. He has just one pressure so far, and Tyrod Taylor escaped to scramble 6 yards on that third-and-4 play, so the 34-year-old future Hall of Famer is hungry. The Patriots, however, have effectively protected Mac Jones, allowing sacks on only six percent of their pass plays. Miller hasn’t looked too nimble his first couple of games back. He declared he felt more “bendy” and “explosive” Sunday night than he did on the dicey Tottenham Hotspur Stadium turf a week earlier. His snap count rose from 20 to 27, but that’s a long way from his 2022 workload. He logged at least 52 snaps in three of his 10 full games. Whether he likes it or not, the Bills can continue to keep slowly ramping him up because Leonard Floyd, Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa have sparkled.

Buscaglia: I think he’ll have a chance to get on the board, if for no other reason than Mac Jones having continuous struggles against Sean McDermott defensive schemes. In four career starts against the Bills, Jones has thrown five interceptions and one of those starts effectively doesn’t count because he only attempted three passes. This year, Jones has been sacked 12 times in six games. Miller’s snap count will inevitably rise a bit more this week, and he should have some success against right tackle Vederian Lowe, who has allowed 26 pressures at a horrific 14.4 percent pressure allowed rate according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. The only worry is if the Patriots take the ball out of Mac Jones’ hand and make the Bills prove they can stop the run.

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Last year it was the right elbow. Now, it’s the right shoulder for Josh Allen. Should we be alarmed this injury will linger all season? 

Graham: Allen will play Sunday. That’s good news, at least. But injuries such as these have been the ongoing organizational worry about the franchise quarterback. These are the issues Buffalo hopes to minimize by transforming Allen into more of a pocket passer and less of a scrambling free spirit. The Bills can’t totally eliminate nasty contact. This particular shoulder injury occurred and was aggravated on relatively normal pass plays where he hit the ground hard. The first was caused by defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence bull-rushing up the middle. The next happened when linebacker Bobby Okereke received a sketchy roughing the passer penalty that led the concussion spotter to send Allen into the blue medical tent. Allen is going to get jostled some more. I wouldn’t be alarmed yet, but you can bet this storyline will persist.

Bills QB Josh Allen on if there will an impact from his shoulder injury: “No concern. We’ll be ready to go.”

— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) October 18, 2023

Buscaglia: He didn’t seem to have any ill-effects in the second half against the Giants with his accuracy, and his misfire to Dawson Knox on third-and-8 looked more of a by-product of not having his feet set and trying to finesse the ball in than the injury itself. That said, we didn’t see him try to gear up and push it down the field very often against the Giants, so that will be something to monitor this weekend. Allen is downplaying the injury, as he always does, but it’s a bit of a to be determined at the moment until we see his full arsenal of throws this Sunday. At the very least, so far, so good.

(Photo: Brian Fluharty / USA Today)