Fantasy football mailbag: Thoughts on Ezekiel Elliott, Cam Akers, QB strategies and more

This week you get two mailbags, and I can tell you right now that on Friday, you will get a salary cap primer. We want to make sure our readers really feel the love as we gear up for the month-long marathon of hard core draft season. Let’s go!

How does adding or losing a stud WR change a stud TE’s production (historically) and vice versa? I ask because that impacts a lot of TEs and WRs this year given all the moves. Does it reduce targets, or free you up from coverage? — Shelby Y.

The term is “vacated targets” and if you pop that into Google, you’ll get some great pieces about which teams have the most vacated targets and who that analyst believes will benefit. However, it’s speculative and very specific to the quarterback, supporting cast, coaches, even team history. Any averages are going to give you a simplistic, false sense of how we can project this information forward. The team with the highest quality of vacated targets (end zone targets, deep targets, air yards, touches in the red and green zone) would be the Green Bay Packers — goodbye, Davante Adams!

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When you preview that team, it’s difficult to project how everything will get divided. Last week I discussed how Aaron Jones will likely benefit, but a wideout will benefit in a big way, too. But will that be Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, or a random? We’ll all debate that up until kickoff and probably into the season. This is a debate worth having. However, chatting about how it will impact Robert Tonyan is less interesting because, historically, tight ends are not fantasy relevant on a consistent basis when playing with Aaron Rodgers. Getting a stud TE out of this team this far into Rodgers’ career could happen (it’s been a while since he’s been without Adams) but there is no recent evidence to support that.

So… what do we do with this information? On a very basic level, I draft with tiered draft sheets. I rank everyone and then I tinker. The players with big-time vacated target situations get moved up one full tier. Those additional opportunities should be weighted. This is a long explanation, but vacated targets are so specific to the circumstance it’s important to not go too far down that rabbit hole, and add your own thoughts to make the projection that makes sense for you.

How are we feeling about past studs like Ezekiel Elliott and Adam Thielen? Any way they make it back into the upper echelon of fantasy production? #PPR – Nick J.

Ezekiel Elliott’s ADP in 2021 was RB5, and he finished the season as the seventh-highest scoring running back in the league. Adam Thielen was WR28 last year, despite only playing in 13 games. Thielen was WR7 on the season through week 12. Thielen’s ADP was WR18. The drama over how bad each of these players were last year is overdramatized. And here’s the great news, this year their ADPs dropped. Elliott is going at RB17 and Thielen at WR28. Out of the two, I prefer Elliott’s value due to Thielen’s age and recent injury history. Will either of them be the top-scoring option at their position? Highly unlikely. But their ADP reflects that, and depending on how your draft is falling to you, I would not actively avoid them, and often, they drop below that (at least they do in my drafts).

In a 12-team PPR league, I landed the No. 12 pick. Drafting Travis Kelce and/or Mark Andrews along with a RB is the move, right? — Titus K.

I’m seeing a lot of great wide outs at the end of the first or beginning of the second (especially if your league tends to be running back heavy at the top). I’m seeing some Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, etc. Running backs are Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara (suspension still looming), etc. If you pick two of the players I mentioned and waited until the next turn for a tight end, you still have a strong chance in non-TE premium leagues to get Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, or Darren Waller. Or you do my favorite thing and wait for your third turn and get Dalton Schulz.

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What would Cam Akers need to do to justify his draft position? — Nelson K.

His current ADP is RB16. That’s what he has to do. That seems like a reasonable expectation, but I’m a worrier. I want to see him in a game situation before feeling great. I’ll probably draft him for some roster diversity, but he’s one of those big-time “potential” players who are also sight unseen, which feels uncomfortable. Not to mention this team made do without him last year (until very late) while going on to win the Super Bowl. I’m wondering if they are going to spread the love more than any of us would like to see. Darrell Henderson Jr.’s continued existence feels like a looming shadow. I’m trying to ignore it, but it’s getting a little dark… Even Kyren Williams, the rookie running back they drafted this year, is a pass-catching back. Akers had three strong games during this rookie season. He went on to play one regular season game and four playoff games last year — totalling 175 rushing yards, 86 receiving yards, zero touchdowns and two fumbles. Still… I do think RB16 is likely if he plays the whole season, and that 2021 return wasn’t a fair reflection of his potential. It’s just all a little uneasy.

Who are your favorite targets for late-round QBs if you don’t target one of the elite QBs? — Jon G.

He’s not super late, but I love Russell Wilson’s ADP in Round 6. In fact, around the sixth there is a nice swath of players that I’m trying get one of: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers. Then I wait until double-digit rounds and go for Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones (especially if I have a big penalty for interceptions and/or incompletions, which has become a trend). If I’m right at the end of the draft and they’re still out there, I’m getting a little Jared Goff, Daniel Jones or Zach Wilson into my life. Again, I’m a huge fan of tiers and these are three tiers where I try to get my guys. Which tier I end up diving into is completely dependent on the league settings, but most leagues will have one from the Brady-through-Rodgers tier, regardless of settings.

How would drafting in a 16-team league effect your draft tactics? What level of QB would you target? — David H.

Regardless of size, your league settings are king. It is more important to know if you start two quarterbacks, if you get 4 or 6 points for a passing touchdown, and if there are any big penalties or bonuses. That will help me tell you which tier to target, but look at the three tier options I listed in the question above. The big factors at play in a 16-team league would include the fact that more teams will be without an every-down running back. You need to know if you are one of them, and if that is the case, concentrate primarily on wide receivers at the top of your draft and then in the mid-rounds grab up all the PPR pass-catching backs who are still on the board. When you end that draft, prepare yourself to use large swaths of FAAB at the beginning of the season to get the running backs who are thrust into larger than expected roles early on because of injury or ineffectiveness of the back in front of them. In general, at the end of every draft, you need to take an honest assessment of your team and come up with a FAAB strategy. Which position is truly your weakest, and how far will you go to pounce on the replacements. Know thyself…

Should I keep Stefon Diggs in Round 4 or Rashod Bateman in Round 16? — J.B.

Diggs. Every week I’m going to say something similar. Yes, you want value, but always take the proven elite player over a player with potential, unless the elite player will cost you a first- or second-round pick. If they will cost that much, then throw them back and try to draft them instead, while keeping another player at value. Here, you’re getting Diggs two or three rounds later than where he’d likely be drafted, so it’s still the best deal. I really like Bateman for this season and would love for you to pick both, but Diggs is special, he’s the preferred target for one of the best QBs in the game (Josh Allen) and there’s no way you would get him much past Round 1 in a keeper league.

Do you believe that a 2QB format is superior to 1QB? — Marcus W.

I do not (**ducks**)! It’s an unpopular opinion, but I don’t think it’s anything like real football, the game we’re basing our game off of. The issue everyone is trying to solve is to make the quarterback position more impactful. Because, ironically, that’s how real football works. The quarterback is the most important player on the field in real football, and yet in fantasy, late-round QB is almost always the way to go. So I think the better resolution is to up the QB stats to make the one you select more important. But I am alone on this and 2QB leagues are the trend right now. I do play in those league formats often, I’m just giving my opinion… since you asked.

(Top photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)