Kentucky Derby 2024: Projected Prize Money Earnings, Order of Finish and More | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors

Only one horse from the initial field, Encino, was scratched before Friday's early-scratch deadline. This gave Epic Ride a chance to compete as an also-eligible but left Mugatu out of the field entering Saturday.

While Encino carried 20-1 odds following the post draw, the Brad Cox-trained mount wasn't among the early favorites. Fierceness, trained by Todd Pletcher, was the morning-line favorite and has remained the favorite throughout the week.

The Chad Brown-trained Sierra Leone has held steady as the second favorite. The two top contenders possess very different racing styles, though—Fierceness is a speedy front-runner, while Sierra Leone is a strong closer—so the battle between them could be decided early.

Fierceness will also have to overcome a bit of bad history. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 17 gate, which is the horse's starting position. Owner Mike Repole, though, remains undaunted.

"The horse is just a different kind. He does everything so easy, so calm, so cool," Repole said, per Beth Harris of the Associated Press.

Quickly moving inside and establishing front positioning won't be easy for Fierceness, but neither the horse nor seasoned jockey John Velazquez will be inclined to panic.

Sierra Leone and jockey Tyler Gaffalione, meanwhile, will look to stalk and close on the front-runners near the end of the race. The early pace will decide which of these two strategies is most successful.

Naturally, we may not see a top favorite win at all, though. Justify was the last odds-on favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, and that happened back in 2018. Japanese horse Forever Young is a strong contender who will break from the 11th gate, though that position hasn't produced a winner since 1988.

Just a Touch and Catching Freedom, both trained by Brad Cox, are two other second-tier favorites to watch—along with the Whit Beckman-trained Honor Marie. Long shots like Dornoch, Mystik Dan, Resilience and Just Steel could be in the mix as well.

As Catalytic's trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., noted, this year's race feels like Sierra Leone and Fierceness, then everyone else.

"On his best day, (Fierceness) is in a league of his own," Joseph said, per Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier Journal. "Sierra Leone is a very good horse, too. Different running style. Those two horses are the standouts. After that, basically, it becomes wide open."

The prediction here is that one of the two favorites does indeed top the money list.

Projected Order of Finish

1. Sierra Leone

2. Fierceness

3. Forever Young

4. Mystik Dan

5. Just a Touch