Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough value contracts this season?

The salary cap and the increase in contract numbers for NHL impact players means teams must have a large group of effective players making less than $2 million AAV.

For the Edmonton Oilers, it’s especially important. Connor McDavid’s contract is 16.7 percent of the overall cap, Leon Draisaitl’s is at 11.3 percent, and those of Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jack Campbell (when in the NHL) represent more than 6 percent each toward the cap.

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Those value contracts are central to Edmonton’s success. When the team experiences troubles, as is the case this year, this kind of contract is harder to find.

Who are the Oilers’ value contracts under $2 million AAV in 2023-24?

The candidates

Mattias Janmark is on a reasonable one-year, $1 million contract and the expectation is as it was a year ago: Depth minutes, penalty kill, keep the opposition at bay until the Oilers’ stars are ready to come back out on the ice. He isn’t scoring at all this season five-on-five, but as a depth player, that’s not a show killer. His expected goals share at five-on-five (64 percent) is strong, while his 25 percent goal share is typical for his line this season. He has been part of the disastrous penalty kill (2:33 per game) and for that alone, Janmark can’t be counted as a value deal.

Dylan Holloway has a contract that pays $925,000 with potential bonuses that could increase the value to $1,441,667. That should be an easy hurdle in terms of value, but coach Jay Woodcroft has been hesitant to place Holloway in a feature role. His five-on-five ice time has increased two minutes year over year, plus his shot rate and high-danger chances have increased. He has zero points in any game state, and like Janmark his goal differential at five-on-five is poor (25 percent) despite an expected goal share in the 60s. The worry over Holloway comes down to offence. He has scored three times in 63 NHL games. Not a value deal so far.

Derek Ryan is signed for this and next season at $900,000. He’s an effective two-way depth forward who can play centre and impacts offence more than the average player in the role. His penalty-killing work is a big part of his game. This season’s results short-handed have been in the ditch, and as a five-on-five scorer (no points) and outscorer (20 percent goal share) Ryan has been found wanting. So far, it’s shy of being value.

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Philip Broberg is currently in the minors but has a $863,333 contract with bonuses that could top him up to $1.713 million. Broberg is a two-way type of defenceman. His expected goals this season at five-on-five (55 percent) is rock solid and his actual goal share (43 percent) ranks third among Oilers defencemen. Even if he’s now in the minors, he’s the closest thing to a value contract the Oilers have seen so far this season.

Connor Brown was the big free-agent signing of the summer, and his $775,000 basically guarantees a value deal. If it happens, Brown will need to impact that game more after he returns from injury. So far, he hasn’t scored a point at five-on-five and owns a 0-4 goal share in the game state. He has played well (57 percent expected goal share and nine high-danger chances) in several games but will need to deliver offence and outscoring in order to be considered a value contract.

Vincent Desharnais is making $762,500 this season as a third pairing right-handed defenceman. He’s big and strong and mean, and the price is right. Desharnais is never going to score much, but his expected goal share at five-on-five (56 percent) shines. He has just a 17 percent goal share in the game state, though, which is par for the course in Edmonton so far in 2023-24. He leads Edmonton defencemen in five-on-five GA-60 (2.65). You can make a case he should be considered a value contract despite the struggles.

High-end value

The contracts of McDavid and Draisaitl are among the most expensive in the league, but the two men bring enough value to be considered value deals.

It can be argued that Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins also deliver despite being paid handsomely. Kane, when healthy, can deliver more value than his cap hit.

Ekholm over-delivered when he was acquired at the deadline last season.

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Getting great value from high-end contracts is key. Not getting real value from the big deals can flush an organization’s window to win.

Campbell, recently placed on waivers and demoted to the AHL, is an example of a contract that can impact a team’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup. A buyout or trade will impact the club’s talent pool.

The most difficult contract is the Nurse deal. He spent his entire career covering the cap bet until his most recent contract kicked in. The yearly five-on-five goal differentials through his career show the early value and the recent downturn in outplaying his contract.

Nurse has been a value contract for almost his entire career, but the current number will be impossible for him to cover. Nurse is a two-way defenceman, neither a shutdown nor a puck-moving blueliner. He won’t deliver enough offence to justify the salary, and the defensive lapses are common enough for him to be unable to reach the dizzying heights required by a pure defender that would accommodate such a cap hit.

Who is a value contract?

Draisaitl has a 50 percent goal share and is posting 2.81 points per 60 (both numbers five-on-five). Hyman has a 48 percent goal share and is scoring 2.80 points per 60.

McDavid is a value deal even now, despite an unusually poor start to the season.

Among the group who have cap hits below $2 million, no one is delivering enough to be considered true value.  Things can change, and names like Holloway and Broberg should emerge over the final 70-plus games of the season.

If you’re looking for a “close enough for jazz” winner at this time, it’s Broberg. He was sent down to the AHL but his goal share and expected goal share are better than the rest of the group. He should be back in Edmonton soon. A player like Desharnais has struggled badly in the most recent three games played by the Oilers, and Bouchard is also having a tough time.

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Broberg can help settle the defence. Mistakes happen, especially with young players.

Edmonton needs Broberg, Holloway and several other players earning less than $2 million to emerge. When in doubt, bet on the young players.

They have more room to grow.

(Photo of Derek Ryan, Mikhail Sergachev and Dylan Holloway: Curtis Comeau / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)