MLB Home Run Derby 2023 Preview and Predictions for Stacked Bracket | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors

No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. (+170 to reach finals) over No. 5 Randy Arozarena

Yeah, I just nominated Arozarena as the breakout star of the 2023 Home Run Derby, but maybe this is actually Robert's time to step into the spotlight. Goodness knows he could be out to prove something after getting egregiously disrespected in the fan vote for the All-Star Game, not even placing top 20 among AL outfielders. Even the players disrespected Robert, as the recently named replacements for Aaron Judge and Mike Trout in the starting lineup were Adolis García and Austin Hays based on player balloting. How far can he hit that chip on his shoulder?

No. 7 Julio Rodríguez (+290 to reach finals) over No. 6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The all-time leader for home runs in a single derby against the player who ranks No. 2 on that list? Yes, please. And if he isn't too gassed from eliminating Alonso in the first round, getting to go first as the worse seed might actually work as an advantage for Rodríguez in this battle of former derby highlight reels. Guerrero was the No. 8 seed the only other time he competed and has never stepped up to the plate knowing the number he needed to advance. And if that number is at least 25, he might be pressing too much to get there.

No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. over No. 7 Julio Rodríguez (+1900 straight forecast)

Fun fact: If this matchup happens, Rodríguez would be the slight favorite, as the straight forecast for Rodríguez over Robert is only +1700.

But this is where fatigue sets in.

After going all-out for the full four minutes (assuming bonus time is earned) as the lower seed against Alonso and (probably) Guerrero in each of the first two rounds, Rodríguez has to muster up the strength to do it for three more minutes in the championship. Meanwhile, Robert might not even break a sweat in eliminating Rutschman, and he'll know how many it takes to beat Arozarena/García before he steps into the box.

Could be a scenario in which Rodríguez has already hit 65 home runs while Robert is much fresher in the 30-40 range.

And we've seen that advantage work out for the well-rested slugger many times in the past. Juan Soto took care of a fatigued Rodríguez in last year's championship round. Alonso knocked out a gassed Guerrero in 2019. And who can forget 2008, when Josh Hamilton hit 28 home runs in the first round, before losing to Justin Morneau—who hit 22 in that entire derby—in the championship?

Robert gets the dub, and subsequently a front-row seat to Chicago's trade deadline fire sale.