NHL season predictions 3.0: The rise of the Avalanche, Rangers and … Coyotes?
David Schmidt
Published Apr 07, 2026
A big three among contenders in the Western Conference. A two-man duel in the Norris Trophy race. And a playoff team in the desert?
With two months of the 2023-24 NHL season in the books, there have been surprises, disappointments, breakouts, risers, fallers … and re-risers. How has it shaped our outlook going forward?
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This week, The Athletic polled staffers on the same set of prediction questions we asked in the preseason and one month ago. Here’s how our expectations for 2023-24 have evolved, with analysis, critique and trolling from national writers Sean Gentille and Hailey Salvian, analytics guru Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Gentille: I picked the Stars at the start of all this, and this was the first time I thought about jumping off the bandwagon. I didn’t, but I thought about it. Also, I respect the people who got back in on the Oilers. Didn’t take much.
Salvian: I’m with Sean here. I picked Dallas at the start of the season and almost jumped on the Avs train this time around. The Stars are only three points behind the lead in the Central with two fewer games than Colorado, though. I’m sticking with them — even though I’d bet on Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar over just about anybody right now. Maybe I made a mistake. It’s fine.
Goldman: A lot more confidence in Western Conference teams at this point in the season. Colorado’s stars are instilling real belief in their chances, and it won’t be surprising if we see them keep trending up in the vote as they get closer to full strength again.
Granger: It’s interesting that the top three teams, and four of the top five, are from the Western Conference. I wonder how much of that is the group believing in the strength of the top of that conference and how much is that the East is just so much more wide open. With Carolina and New Jersey struggling at the moment, it feels like there are a lot of really good teams in the East, but none have separated themselves from the pack.
Who will be the runners-up?
Gentille: Our top three Cup picks are in the West, so of course this one goes to an Eastern team. Wild to see how much support the Canes have lost.
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Goldman: It’s been a weird start to the season in the Metro Division, with expected contenders struggling thanks to goaltending. It makes sense how much support there is for the Rangers, but wow that’s so little between the Hurricanes and Devils at this point.
Granger: When Igor Shesterkin is your second-best goalie, you’re in pretty good shape. That’s obviously not likely to last, but Jonathan Quick’s resurgence has been incredibly well-timed with Shesterkin having a roller-coaster start. The Rangers are so good everywhere, especially in net.
Who will finish in last place?
Gentille: Here come the Ducks! Two points in 14 games!
Goldman: Sorry Bedard, but there’s a very good chance you get another top pick bestie at the end of this season.
Salvian: Mark Lazerus asked Kyle Davidson this week about the potential obligation to get Bedard someone to play with, with Taylor Hall out for the season and Corey Perry kicked off the team. I’d understand not wanting your star playing in no-man’s land the rest of the season, but does it make sense to spend assets to bring someone in? Feels like if Chicago doesn’t add at the deadline they have a good chance of finishing last.
Granger: The Sharks are playing better lately, but this could be a peak for them and they’re still just ahead of last place. Kaapo Kahkonen and Mackenzie Blackwood have done a sensational job in net to post positive goals saved above replacement behind that defense. History tells us they won’t be able to maintain that for 82 games. If the save percentage regresses, things could get ugly.
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Must have been projected at 100-plus points in the preseason by Dom’s model.
Goldman: What do the three teams at the top have in common? Bad goaltending! It’ll be really interesting to see which of these teams, if any, make a change in net to turn things around.
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Granger: Not just bad goaltending. The worst goaltending. Carolina, Edmonton and New Jersey have the three lowest save percentages in the entire NHL.
Salvian: If we’re going by overall disappointment level and not just teams that came into the season highly rated by Dom, the Penguins might be getting a lot of support here. I know I was banging the “Penguins are back” drum when they landed Erik Karlsson. As of Friday morning, though, they’re only a shade over .500. At least they scored on the power play, though.
Who’s your dark horse Cup contender?
Must have been projected as a middle-of-the-pack team in the preseason, between 85 and 100 points by Dom’s model.
Gentille: I was wondering just how many of us would bail on the Lightning. Turns out it was a lot. And I get it — they don’t quite look cooked, but things are starting to get crispy.
Granger: I voted for the Kings, but not because I bailed on the Lightning. I’m still rather optimistic about Tampa Bay with Andrei Vasilevskiy finally back, but the Kings are just a powerhouse right now. They’re so strong up the center of the ice, and once they get a lead, their neutral zone trap makes life miserable for opponents.
Goldman: The Kings are stealing some of the Canucks’ hype, and it should make for an exciting finish in the Pacific.
Who’s your surprise playoff team?
Must have been projected below 85 points in the preseason by Dom’s model.
Gentille: I wanted to abstain from this one.
Salvian: It took three months, but Philadelphia is finally getting votes in this category. The regression hasn’t hit yet, and they’re third in the Metro. Are Flyers fans happy about this? I’d love to know.
Goldman: The Flyers’ progression gets them some appreciation here, but we all know they’re sticking to their rebuilding plans which will probably take the wind out of this roster closer to the deadline. I wonder how many of us would have taken a “none of the above” option if it were available.
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Granger: To be perfectly honest, I don’t think any of these teams will make the playoffs at this stage, but if I had to pick one, I’d take the Coyotes. They’re deep, with capable scorers on each of their top three lines, and Connor Ingram is having a great season in the crease.
Who will be the next coach fired?
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
39.4% | 36.7% | 61.3% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 9.7% | |
6.1% | 3.3% | 6.5% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
0.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | |
12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 46.7% | N/A | |
24.2% | 0.0% | N/A | |
3.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
Gentille: D.J. Smith seems like the no-brainer here, but it’s still funny to see that Craig Berube and Dean Evason combined for zero votes the last time we did this.
Granger: Right? By that logic, Smith should be safe.
Salvian: The feeling that this is another lost season in Ottawa is starting to creep up. It’s getting hard to watch. I still think Pierre Dorion wears a lot of the issues for the Senators, but at some point, they might just need a clean slate.
East playoff field
We asked each voter to pick the eight East playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team. (Note: * playoff team in 2022-23)
Goldman: It really helps the Lightning that the expected up-and-coming Atlantic teams have each had their own struggles. Detroit has the best chance of shaking things up, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they don’t.
Salvian: Honestly, I voted for the Penguins because I’m stubborn.
Granger: Nothing seems out of place here. This top eight matches my votes and the sportsbook odds. All of the teams outside of the playoffs in this ranking are currently underdogs to qualify for the postseason, while the top eight are all favorites to make it.
West playoff field
We asked each voter to pick the eight West playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team. (Note: * playoff team in 2022-23)
Gentille: The Coyotes are fun, I get it, but I don’t think enough of us are aware that the Preds are 7-3-0 in their past 10 games and six points ahead of Arizona. Too much of a gap in our results.
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Salvian: I voted for the Preds over Arizona. They’re in the first wild-card spot right now, over .500, while Arizona has lost four straight. Also, the Flames going from 57 percent of the vote to three is quite the drop.
Goldman: You’d think the Wild’s goalie rebound plus Matt Boldy picking it up would push Minnesota up in the conversation a bit, too.
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA)
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
75.8% | 23.3% | 35.5% | |
6.1% | 0.0% | 19.4% | |
0.0% | 10.0% | 16.1% | |
3.0% | 3.3% | 12.9% | |
6.1% | 26.7% | 6.5% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 6.5% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Granger: There’s less love for Nikita Kucherov than I expected here. He has now stretched his lead atop the points race to seven, and is singlehandedly powering the Lightning offense.
Goldman: Connor McDavid is looking like himself again and that’s obviously contributing to the Oilers’ turnaround and has us back on his bandwagon. Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are probably going to hurt each other’s cases, even though there’s an argument for each.
Salvian: I admit to sticking with my Jack Hughes vote. His production is still excellent (34 points in 22 games), and if the Devils climb up the Metro standings, he’ll be a big reason. But also … who voted for Crosby?
Special guest segment: Crosby??
Rob Rossi, NHL writer based in Pittsburgh: There are awards for the NHL’s best player and top scorer, and the Hart Trophy is for neither. It’s for the player adjudged most valuable to his team. That makes it a narrative award as much as anything.
The Penguins weren’t in the playoffs at the time of this polling. I think they’re going to get in, and when they do, it’ll be because Crosby, their captain, scored 45-plus goals and 100-plus points in his 19th season, at age 36.
Crosby is already viewed as one of the all-time greats. He probably was going to win the Hart Trophy in 2011 and 2013 before a concussion and broken jaw cost him chunks of those seasons. Voters know Crosby “deserves” more than his two Harts. A case can be made he would have won from 2010 to 2014, instead of just in 2014. (His first Hart came in 2007.) A third Hart would pull him even with Alex Ovechkin, which feels fair given their rivalry.
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If my prediction is correct and these Penguins return to the playoffs after a terrible start, and with the NHL’s oldest roster, it’s not at all impossible to imagine Crosby being deemed the most valuable player to any team that qualifies. And with Connor McDavid’s fatigue, plus an opportunity to put Crosby on the same historical Hart line with Ovechkin (and some guy named Mario Lemieux), well, good luck going against that narrative.
If the Penguins get in, Crosby wins. Might be as much of a career-achievement award as anything. Or maybe it’s just that after all these years, Crosby means more to his team than anybody else. Two things can be true at the same time.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
36.4% | 93.3% | 90.3% | |
33.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | |
6.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | |
18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: This is Brock Boeser erasure! (I voted for Matthews.)
Goldman: Boeser’s sky-high shooting percentage is bound to regress, and Matthews keeps scoring in bunches with eight multi-goal games.
Salvian: Matthews is on pace for 70 goals. Hilarious.
Granger: I say he does it. In reality, he won’t. But it feels like a lock that he scores more goals than anyone else as long as he stays healthy.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
66.7% | 53.3% | 58.1% | |
0.0% | 46.7% | 38.7% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | |
15.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: I’m more interested in the Makar-for-Hart push.
Goldman: The Norris feels like a two-person race, but I’m 1) a little surprised that Erik Karlsson isn’t even mentioned 2) keeping an eye on Noah Dobson, who has been crushing it lately.
Granger: The battle between Makar and Hughes may be the best award race of the season.
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
12.9% | 20.0% | 51.6% | |
3.2% | 23.3% | 9.7% | |
0.0% | 13.3% | 6.5% | |
41.9% | 10.0% | 6.5% | |
12.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | |
3.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | |
3.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | |
6.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | |
3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | |
3.2% | 0.0% | 3.2% | |
3.2% | 6.7% | 0.0% | |
3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: Send this one out for engraving. Aleksander Barkov is going to win, and he’s going to deserve it.
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Goldman: Maybe if Nico Hischier didn’t miss time he’d have a better shot, but Barkov’s so far ahead in this race.
Granger: I feel like not enough people are staying up late to watch Mark Stone and Anze Kopitar on the West Coast. They’re getting votes, but not as many as they should be.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
0.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 22.6% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 19.4% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 9.7% | |
27.3% | 26.7% | 6.5% | |
36.4% | 3.3% | 6.5% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | |
30.3% | 30.0% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | |
6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: I went Connor Hellebuyck here over Thatcher Demko — the Jets are good, and I think he’s a good bet to heat up down the stretch — but this one feels wide open.
Goldman: This feels right between Demko and Hellebuyck, but Adin Hill’s the surprise for me, considering the goalie rotation Vegas has rolled through most of the season so far.
Salvian: I know he’s older, but it feels like Cam Talbot should be getting some more love here. His .927 save percentage and 2.02 goals-against average are top five in the league among starters.
Granger: I love that Talbot is playing some of the best hockey of his life, but the workload worries me. He’s 36 years old and has played in more than 73 percent of Los Angeles’ games to this point. That puts him on pace to play 60 games, which is high. If Pheonix Copley doesn’t earn some more trust, and starts, Talbot could wear down.
Jack Adams Award
Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
3.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | |
12.1% | 13.3% | 19.4% | |
0.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
3.0% | 6.7% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 6.7% | 3.2% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | |
21.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: The Canucks have beaten back regression long enough to make this feel like Rick Tocchet’s to lose.
Goldman: Jared Bednar’s never going to win this trophy because of the stacked roster in Colorado, and I’m still never going to understand it.
Granger: Same goes for Bruce Cassidy, who has navigated early-season injuries brilliantly with an excellent system to keep the defending champs atop the standings.
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Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA
| Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
|---|---|---|---|
78.8% | 83.3% | 100.0% | |
12.1% | 6.7% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Goldman: Duh. The more interesting part of this conversation is going to be who rounds out the top three around him. Brock Faber’s making his case, but it’s pretty wide open for that third slot.
Granger: Joseph Woll’s high ankle sprain that could keep him out for weeks likely ended any hope that someone will challenge Bedard here.
(Top photos of Artemi Panarin, Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon: Jared Silber and Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
