Twins mailbag: Max Kepler’s dots, Kenta Maeda vs. Louie Varland and Byron Buxton in center

New mailbag, same story.

As the Twins keep hovering above .500 with a strong rotation, a shaky bullpen and a lineup built to boom that has more often gone bust, they continue to lead the laughably woeful American League Central — now a combined 40 games below .500 as a division — almost by default. Playing at a thoroughly mediocre 84-victory pace, the Twins are somehow also on pace to win the division by 10 games.

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Let’s open the mailbag and see what’s on your minds about a first-place team.

Why are Max Kepler’s numbers on Baseball Savant above average a lot in the red area, but his real-life numbers don’t reflect it? — Scott A.

Baseball Savant is an incredible website, and the information available on it is invaluable to smart baseball fans, but going to the player pages and looking at the red or blue circles representing percentile rankings for various metrics isn’t a substitute for meaningful analysis. And in Max Kepler’s specific case, it’s bound to overrate him because he falls short of his “expected” numbers every season.

There’s more to evaluating any player than simply adding up how many above-average metrics they have, and the metrics themselves can vary substantially in importance. Kepler fails to generate the batting average those metrics think he should have because the balls in play stemming from his contact are consistently worth less than league-wide norms. He makes too many near-automatic outs.

That’s not something that can be apparent with a surface-level look, but if you watch Kepler hit a few thousand times, and you delve deeper into his numbers, there are patterns that stand out. It’s something I wrote about two years ago, as Kepler was just starting to show signs of decline. His actual batting average has been lower than “expected” in seven straight seasons. That’s not just bad luck.

(Note: I wrote a full article about the Kepler situation last week, so I’m skipping the many other Kepler-related mailbag questions that were submitted.)

Are the Twins’ injuries already as bad as last season? — Tim R.

Injuries have again been a big problem for the Twins after wrecking their 2022 season. Twins players have logged the American League’s second-most days on the injured list and they’ve put the AL’s second-most players on the IL. That’s actually an improvement from last season, when they led the AL in both players on the IL and days lost to the IL, but just barely.

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They lost Tyler Mahle to season-ending Tommy John surgery after five starts and Kenta Maeda’s comeback from Tommy John surgery lasted just four starts before he returned to the IL. Nick Gordon suffered a fractured tibia in his 91st at-bat. Jorge Polanco, Joey Gallo and Kepler each have had multiple IL stints. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have avoided the IL, but are very banged up.

So far at least, the biggest difference from 2022 is the Twins stockpiling better depth to withstand injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland have a 2.89 ERA in 15 starts replacing Mahle and Maeda in the rotation. Call-ups Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien have jolted the lineup. Minor-league signings Brock Stewart and Willi Castro have become key pieces.

Obviously the goal was to stay substantially healthier, and the Twins have failed at that despite replacing their head athletic trainer. But being far better prepared to endure the never-ending injuries was also part of the plan and they’ve largely succeeded there. However, it’s worth noting last season’s injury mess went from very bad to plague-like in August and September. They’ve got a long way to go.

When his rehab is finished, do you see the Twins putting Kenta Maeda in the bullpen instead of taking Louie Varland’s rotation spot? — Rob C.

President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said Maeda will build back up as a starter, which will probably require the maximum 30-day rehab assignment given how much time he missed, before and after Tommy John surgery. Maeda is two starts into a rehab stint that will likely last five or six starts, so there’s no need to map anything out for a while yet.

With that said it would make little sense to bump Varland, a hard-throwing 25-year-old rookie with a bright future, for Maeda, a soft-tossing 35-year-old impending free agent. My guess is the Twins will delay a decision on Maeda for as long as possible. If one of their current five starters gets hurt, Maeda can take their place. If not, the Twins can either move Maeda to the bullpen or move on.

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Why should the Twins continue to protect Byron Buxton by having him be a designated hitter and not play center field? — Tom D.

Because he’s not physically capable of playing center field regularly at this point.

I don’t understand how anyone can watch Buxton run the bases and not see that he’s clearly struggling to push himself through significant knee problems. Every time he slides into a base, he stays down for several extra beats, almost needing to regroup before standing up. When he’s done a lot of running in consecutive games — like in last month’s Dodgers series — he’s needed days off to recover.

Everyone agrees that Buxton playing center field would be ideal. That’s what he wants and what the Twins want. But to act as if that’s a realistic possibility right now is to ignore the unfortunate reality of the situation, which should be plainly obvious to anyone watching. They’re not using Buxton at DH instead of center field, they’re using him at DH because they don’t think he can play center field.

What will the Twins do in center field for 2024? — Cody S.

It’s possible that Buxton’s knees feel good enough by next year to resume semi-regular action in center field. It’s also possible the Twins will re-sign impending free agent Michael A. Taylor or trade for a different placeholder veteran. Austin Martin profiles as a possible center fielder and the 24-year-old prospect recently started playing again after a spring training elbow injury.

Royce Lewis looks good at third base right now and the Twins have committed to keeping him solely in the infield this season as he returns from back-to-back knee surgeries, but I’m of the belief that his best long-term fit defensively could be center field. There are major-league evaluators inside and outside the Twins organization who also feel that way. Nothing is set in stone for 2024.

Royce Lewis is already making highlights at third base with a diving stop and strong throw from his knees to start this 5-6-3 double play.

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) June 3, 2023

If he never plays center field again and is only a designated hitter, how well would Byron Buxton need to hit for his contract to be worth it? — Levi D.

Starting this year, Buxton makes $15 million per season. That puts him outside of the top 75 salaries in MLB for 2023, and he’ll drop even further on that list in future years, as salaries naturally rise across the league. Odds are, for most of this contract, Buxton will not be among the 100 highest-paid players in MLB. He’s paid like merely a good regular, making roughly half of star-level pay.

Generally speaking, each Win Above Replacement is worth about $8 million on the free-agent market. To be worth his $15 million salary, Buxton needs to produce two WAR. He certainly hasn’t been at his best this season, posting a 113 OPS+ that’s 23 points worse than his combined mark in the previous four years, yet he’s still on pace for 2.4 WAR, valued at just shy of $20 million.

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Many aspects of his health status and role with the Twins are worth discussing and debating, but Buxton being “worth” his relatively modest salary isn’t really something to stress over. To this point in his career, Buxton has produced about $170 million in on-field value while being paid less than $30 million. Odds are he’ll continue to provide value that out-paces his salary, regardless of his role.

What are the Twins’ options with Jorge López? — Mike W.

Jorge López was great in April, posting a 0.00 ERA in 12 innings as the Twins’ main setup man. He’s become increasingly unreliable, and eventually borderline unusable, since May 1, allowing 13 runs in 12 innings while opponents hit .327 with six homers and a .776 slugging percentage. But their options to deal with the situation are limited, literally and figuratively.

López can’t be demoted to the minors, so he must remain on the active roster while working through his struggles or have a valid reason to be placed on the injured list. Considering the price the Twins paid to get López from Baltimore at last year’s trade deadline, and the key role they were counting on him filling this season, cutting the 30-year-old right-hander loose isn’t realistic or smart.

It’s a very bad situation, made even worse by the fact that one of the four minor leaguers sent to the Orioles, right-hander Yennier Cano, is suddenly one of the league’s best relievers. Left-hander Cade Povich, regarded at the deadline as the headliner of the Orioles’ haul from the trade, also remains a promising prospect. Meanwhile, the Twins have gotten 47 innings of a 4.44 ERA from López.

Poor Jorge Lopez gives up back to back HRs, walks a batter, and hits a batter then accidentally pours gatorade in his hair instead of water… corrected that then punched the gatorade cooler

— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) June 1, 2023

What do you see the Twins going after at the trade deadline? — John M.

This is always difficult to predict two months in advance, and especially in this case because the Twins’ deadline targets figure to be heavily influenced by their injury situation come late July.

I can’t remember the last time adding rotation help wasn’t a deadline priority for a contending Twins team, but it’s possible they’ll be able to avoid that expensive market this year. As things stand right now, late-inning bullpen help would be a priority, and they’ll need to figure out at least one position at which to target an impact hitter. But a lot can change between now and Aug. 1.

Whatever ends up as a priority, I’d expect them to be aggressive, like last season.

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If a player gets sent to the minors, do they have to remain there for a specified number of days? — Roger H.

Yes. For players optioned to the minors, the minimum stay is 10 days for hitters and 15 days for pitchers, with one key exception: They can be recalled earlier as the corresponding roster move for any player being placed on the MLB injured list. For example, last month the Twins used Caleb Thielbar going on the IL to recall Kirilloff just five days after optioning him to Triple-A St. Paul.

Is it reasonable to expect a Brooks Lee promotion to the majors at some point this season? — Andrew J.

Unlikely. Brooks Lee has hit .262/.341/.415 in 47 games at Double-A Wichita, which is pretty encouraging for a 22-year-old in his first full season, but he’s not exactly banging down the door to the majors. Getting a second-half promotion to Triple-A St. Paul seems more likely for last year’s first-round pick. He’s still a very highly regarded prospect, but mid-2024 is a more realistic timeline.

Do the Twins take pitches in the zone for strikes and strike out looking more than the rest of the league? — Daniel R.

This requires a somewhat nuanced response to accurately represent the Twins’ tendencies, so bear with me.

Yes, the Twins lead the AL in strikeouts looking, but that’s not really surprising because they lead the AL in strikeouts, period. They’re just average in strikeouts looking as a percentage of total strikeouts, ranking 17th out of 30 teams. Their rate of strikeouts looking is 23 percent and the MLB-wide rate is … 23 percent. It’s the number of strikeouts, not the type of strikeouts, hurting the Twins.

Similarly, the Twins have swung at 67 percent of pitches in the strike zone and the MLB-wide rate is … 67 percent.

Do you ever wish you covered a juggernaut team like the Dodgers instead of the Twins or would that actually be boring? — Christine T.

Oh, you think darkness is your ally? You merely adopted the dark. I was born in it. Molded by it. I didn’t see the light until I was already a man. By then, it was nothing to me but blinding. Shadows betray you because they belong to me.

(Top photo of Max Kepler and Byron Buxton: Jesse Johnson / USA Today)