UFC 288 odds, picks: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo is a toss up, but not the only fight worth watching

The UFC 288 slate is set with an awesome headliner matchup between Aljamain Sterling and Henry Cejudo, and a handful of other great fights littered throughout the card.  That includes a high-profile five-rounder between Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, which I will be breaking down, as well as another intriguing main card fight between Kron Gracie and Charles Jourdain.

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If you’re looking for full breakdowns on every fight on the slate, you can always find that on my site DailyFanMMA, or follow me on Twitter for more information at BrettAppley. I’m always happy to chat in the comments section below as well, if there’s any other matchup on the card that piques your interest!

Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

Sterling is set to defend his bantamweight title once again on Saturday, but the focus will be on the challenger Cejudo, who will return from retirement to reclaim his spot at the top of the division.

Cejudo technically never lost the bantamweight title that he won with a knockout over Marlon Moraes in 2019, and then defended successfully against Dominick Cruz in 2020. Instead, he had other plans away from the sport, and needed time to reset.

Whether Cejudo returns in A+ form will be a major question, but there’s no denying Cejudo’s pedigree and resume is among the best combat sports has ever seen.

Cejudo famously won the Olympic gold medal in wrestling in 2008, at the age of 21. He then transitioned to professional MMA and eventually won the flyweight title in 2018, upsetting the longtime king Demetrious Johnson. And then he stepped up to bantamweight to dethrone Moraes shortly thereafter.

Win or lose on Saturday, Cejudo has nothing left to prove.

The current champion Sterling may still have something left to prove after a multi-year debacle with Petr Yan had the public rooting for his eventual demise. That outcome never came, and Sterling since successfully defended the belt against TJ Dillashaw in 2022.

Truthfully, this is a very difficult matchup for me to analyze.

Cejudo, of course, excels as a wrestler, which is his best skill set, and it seems that he could have a clear path to takedowns against Sterling, who only defends at 41 percent. However, Cejudo is not much of a submission threat. His takedowns lead to some control, and some ground-and-pound, but he’s rarely a threat to finish on the mat.

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Sterling on the other hand, is a very skilled submission grappler, and will have a pretty extreme length advantage over Cejudo as the true bantamweight. Perhaps Cejudo can land takedowns and earn some top control, but I don’t think Cejudo has a great chance to dominate once the fight hits the mat.

On the flip side, Cejudo has defended takedowns at 93 percent. Sterling averages a couple of takedowns per 15 minutes, but it’s tough for me to project Sterling to outwrestle Cejudo with any consistency. That could be a major factor limiting Sterling’s success overall.

Sterling is an elite back-taker though, and perhaps can find a path to advantageous positions without a clear takedown presence. He’s also arguably got a better chance than Cejudo to lock up a RNC or some other submission, should the fight hit the mat.

If the fight plays out on the feet, which I expect it will for a hefty length of time, both fighters can have success.

I would have to give the advantage to Sterling though. His metrics are very good, landing 4.70 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.18 per minute at a 61 percent defensive rate.

He’ll have a seven-inch reach advantage over Cejudo, which means Cejudo will be forced to close distance. Given Sterling’s ability to play a distance game at high output, I think Sterling has a pretty high floor in this matchup in striking exchanges.

Cejudo really smashed the legs of Cruz in his last bout, which could be another tool here, though I think he’ll need head strikes to really turn the momentum. Cejudo is capable of it. He’s a quality boxer with strong metrics as well, landing 3.92 per minute while absorbing 2.77 per minute at a 65 percent defensive rate.

Both sides have been knocked out before, though not since 2017. Sterling showed some cardio question marks down the stretch against Yan, though at points in his career he’s been known as a cardio phenom.

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Ultimately, there are just a lot of variables here, especially with Cejudo returning from a three-year retirement.

On BetMGM, Cejudo is a slight favorite at -115, compared to the underdog line on Sterling at -105, and I don’t think this is a matchup that carries massive betting value.

If I had to give a more firm opinion, I don’t think betting the Cejudo side is correct. It’s quite likely at age 36 that he doesn’t return in prime form, and Sterling is arguably the best opponent he has ever faced, if you include the combination of skills, size and age.

Cejudo has a path to success but it’s not an easy one, and I don’t think he should be favored outright in the matchup.

Sterling makes more sense as a value side as an underdog, but I’d prefer to target Sterling when he has a clear path to takedowns, and that may not happen in this matchup either. 

Overall, it’s quite possible we see these two strike competitively for several rounds in a close decision. My betting lean would be toward an extended matchup and targeting the winner in a larger plus-money decision prop.

Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns

We have a rare five-round co-main event matchup between two top welterweight contenders. This is the fight I am looking forward to most.

Muhammad has been on an insane run of success, losing only one fight in his past 14 matchups, and he’s coming off one of the best performances of his career with a second-round TKO over Sean Brady.

Gilbert Burns fell short in his last championship run to Kamaru Usman, and also had a fight-of-the-year candidate against Khamzat Chimaev. He keeps marching forward though, with a recent submission win over Neil Magny, and a more recent decision win against Jorge Masvidal.

This is a very competitive fight, and it’s lined that way in the betting markets as well, with Burns priced as a -135 favorite on BetMGM.

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Personally, I lean slightly toward the underdog in Muhammad, who I think may continue to thrive in five-round matchups.

The obvious challenge will be the wrestling and grappling threat of Burns, who is one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu players in the UFC today. Burns averages 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, and is an extreme threat both from top and from the guard.

He’s leaned on his roots too lately, prioritizing wrestling against Stephen Thompson, Magny and Masvidal. It’s quite possible that Burns can earn more takedowns against Muhammad, control the fight and potentially lock up a submission.

However, I do respect Muhammad’s takedown defense. It’s currently at 92 percent and he held up very well against Demian Maia back in 2021. Burns is still capable of getting this fight to the mat, but I’m encouraged by what Muhammad has shown and I think there’s a decent chance that Muhammad can force stand-up exchanges.

Perhaps Muhammad can even land takedowns of his own, though I would guess he won’t force that battle. He does land 2.19 per 15 minutes himself, and Burns only defends at 47 percent. It would just be a risk, but if Muhammad is comfortable from top position, I wouldn’t mind him mixing that up occasionally just to give Burns another tool to think about and test his cardio.

Mostly, I’m expecting a lot of stand-up here, where both sides can win. Burns has improved dramatically over the years, and he throws with a lot of power these days.

He only lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute though, while absorbing 3.13 per minute at a 54 percent defensive rate. He’s good, but he’s somewhat vulnerable defensively, and he’s been hurt many times.

Muhammad lands 4.47 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.68 per minute at a 58 percent defensive rate. I don’t consider his power to be elite, but he’s sharp technically and I loved the pace he pushed against Brady.

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I think it would be wise for him to repeat that game plan against Burns, who needs more energy to excel with his style. Especially over five rounds, I don’t fully trust that Burns will feel comfortable in the championship rounds, where I do trust mostly in the cardio of Muhammad.

There’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges, and early on, Burns can still give Muhammad a very tough test. I just expect Muhammad to have a better long game, and I trust his output a bit more over five rounds.

Overall, I do think it’s fair to line this fight tightly. Burns clearly has a grappling edge, and likely holds a power striking advantage too. Muhammad is one of the most consistent fighters round-to-round in the sport though, and I prefer his game over 25 minutes.

If given the choice, I don’t mind a flier on Muhammad at +110, and I think he has a sneaky chance to win by TKO at +500, if you’re looking for a longer shot.

Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain

One matchup that piques my interest from a betting perspective, I am surprised that the legendary BJJ ace Gracie is lined as a considerable underdog against fun action-fighter Jourdain.

Don’t get me wrong, I have some concerns about Gracie, especially coming back from a four-year layoff with nothing to prove. Gracie hasn’t fought since 2019 when he boxed with Cub Swanson for 15 minutes and lost a decision.

Given his world-class BJJ pedigree, his decision to box instead of grapple is likely a contributing factor to this current betting line.

However, Gracie still landed 86 significant strikes in that matchup against a true MMA veteran, and it’s possible that he’s only continued to improve as a striker in his time away. And prior to that, Gracie had submitted Alex Caceres in just two minutes in his UFC debut, so it’s not like we have a large sample of Gracie ignoring his grappling path to victory.

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Now he’ll take on Jourdain, a fighter known for striking at a high pace and building throughout the course of a fight.

Jourdain has some impressive victories in his UFC career, including finishes over Dooho Choi, Marcelo Rojo and Lando Vannata. He lands 5.84 significant strikes per minute, and he’s been very active against decent competition in the past few years.

The problem I have with Jourdain is that he’s not the best physical presence, and he’s not the best defensive wrestler. In fact, Jourdain has been taken down by each of his past six opponents.

Most recently, Nathaniel Wood took Jourdain down five times on eight attempts, and controlled him for nearly five minutes.

Gracie may not be the best wrestler in this division, but unlike Wood and Shane Burgos and some of Jourdain’s other opponents, Gracie is a truly special submission grappler, and could have a major advantage if the fight hits the mat.

If Gracie chooses to strike, I would obviously have to favor Jourdain. His volume and ability to push a pace late in fights should be enough to beat Gracie at distance.

But Jourdain is -200 to win this fight on BetMGM, which is what surprises me most. He’s defending takedowns at 48 percent historically, and he’s already been submitted in the UFC.

I am slightly concerned that Gracie will choose to stand and strike, but as a +165 underdog, he could be a considerable value in hindsight if he pursues a grappling-based game plan.

I’d be willing to take a chance on that moneyline personally, as well as a +200 or better price on Gracie to win by submission.

That’s all for this week. Thanks for the support as always and if you have differing opinions on the five-rounders, or want to chat about any other matchup, shoot me a comment below.

(Photo of Henry Cejudo: Jeff Bottari / Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)